n 2 November 2026, the United States announced that South Africa and Rwanda will lose their duty-free access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from 1 January 2027.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said President Trump had found that both governments were "engaging in practices that are inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility criteria." For South Africa, the US cited barriers to US trade and investment, corruption, and threats to US national security and foreign policy interests. For Rwanda, it cited trade and investment barriers, rule of law, political pluralism, worker rights, human rights, and national security and foreign policy concerns.
For more than two decades, AGOA has allowed eligible African countries to export more than 1,800 products to the US without paying duty. Losing that access does not close the US market. It makes it more expensive to sell into it, and that cost runs straight through the supply chains of exporters, their suppliers and their buyers.
South Africa's Trade Minister Parks Tau says the country exported about $1.7 billion to the US under AGOA in 2025, down from about $4 billion in 2024. That was about 10% of South Africa's exports to the US, and about 1% of its total exports to the world. Around 89% of its exports to the US already enter on normal most-favoured-nation terms.
The headline number hides the pain in specific sectors. Agricultural exports to the US were worth about $504 million in 2025. Economist Wandile Sihlobo estimates the average added tariff at about 3.4 percentage points. Citrus growers face ordinary US duties of about 1.5 to 2.5 US cents per kilogram, on top of an existing 12.5% tariff on mandarins, lemons and grapefruit.
Industry views are divided. The Citrus Growers Association has warned that growers cannot simply send their fruit to other markets instead, Daily Maverick reports, while independent economist Eckart Naumann of the Trade Law Centre told the publication that the decision is not a disaster for South Africa.
The government says it offered additional concessions during talks that began in 2025, and that the US raised new issues that had not been part of those discussions. It has promised to assess the impact on affected industries and support companies case by case. "This decision does not define the broader relationship between South Africa and the United States," Tau said. Bilateral trade reached $28.8 billion in 2025, and more than 600 US companies operate in South Africa.
For Rwanda, the direct trade impact is likely to be limited. US imports from Rwanda were worth $43.3 million in 2025, up $13.1 million on 2024, according to US import data reported by Reuters. Oxford Economics estimates that the US took about 2% of Rwanda's merchandise exports in 2025, and that only about 4% of its exports to the US used AGOA preferences. Coffee and minerals are among the products affected.
Rwanda had not issued an official response at the time of writing. Reporting on the decision has linked it to longstanding US concerns over Rwanda's alleged support for the M23 rebel group in eastern DR Congo, which Rwanda has repeatedly denied. These concerns are not named in the US Trade Representative's statement.
For East Africa, the decision matters beyond the dollar figure. It shows that AGOA eligibility now depends on wider political and security questions, not trade performance alone, and every country in the region will be reading it that way.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR SUPPLY CHAINS AND PROCUREMENT
1. Contracts need repricing: Export contracts priced on duty-free delivery into the US will cost more from January. Exporters and their buyers need to agree who carries the new duty, and procurement teams should review delivery terms on any contract that runs into 2027.
2. Buyers may switch suppliers: US importers can now buy similar products duty-free from other AGOA countries. That is a risk for South African and Rwandan exporters, and an opening for competitors in countries that remain eligible, such as Kenya.
3. The pressure lands on agriculture first: Perishable exports such as citrus cannot wait for new markets. Growers, packhouses, cold stores and shipping lines on the South Africa to US route will feel the change first.
4. Diversification is no longer optional: Both countries now have a stronger reason to deepen trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area and with Europe, the Middle East and Asia. For logistics providers, that means new routes and new cargo flows to plan for.
The suspension is due to take effect on 1 January 2027, which leaves a short window for talks. South African exporters are calling for an urgent trade mission to Washington.
Terry Gale, Chair of Exporters Western Cape, told Moneyweb that the result of the US midterm elections has changed the political picture in Washington, and he sees three possible outcomes, a negotiated reconsideration before January, new legislation in Congress, or the exclusion going ahead.
Whatever happens, the lesson for African procurement and supply chain leaders is clear. Preferential trade access is a policy decision that can be withdrawn, not a permanent feature of the market. The organisations that will cope best are the ones that know exactly where their costs depend on it, and have a plan B ready.
